Mobile predictions for 2013 by Forrester, IDC, Gartner, Mary Meeker, eMarketer, Yankee Group and DMI
“A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” – Wayne Gretzky
At this time of the year analysts, bloggers and media in general all make predictions for the year to come. We have plowed through all the top sources as well as our own research and summarised the trends and predictions to give you a clear picture of the 2013 mobile playing field. In addition to this we have also made recommendations on what these trends mean for you. The trends have been addressed from the B2C (Consumer Marketing and Commerce) perspective and Enterprise perspective, although we believe both are equally important independent of your focus in 2013. The blog is posted in two parts.
It’s no coincidence that Forrester, Gartner and IDC all put mobility among their top trends. According to all forecasters whether it’s consumer trends or enterprise, the biggest growth in spend, traffic and media consumption will be from mobile. Here are some of the key trends and predictions for 2013.
Mobile retail explodes with m-commerce, loyalty, etc.
- 41% of smartphone owners have made a purchase from their mobile phone. Of those, 16% bought apparel; 15% food and beverages; 11% toys and games; 11% electronics; 8% home goods; 4% sporting goods; 4% books; 3% jewelry; and 8% other products (Source: Chadwick Martin Bailey, 2011).
- 47% of consumers confirm they use their smartphone to search for local information such as a local store they want to visit. 46% of consumers look up prices on a store’s mobile site and 42% check inventory prior to shopping in the store (Source: Local and the e-tailing group, 2012).
- Nearly two out of three shoppers use at least one device to research and purchase while shopping, 28% use two devices at a time. More than one third of shoppers made at least one purchase with their mobile devices during the past six months. Tablet shoppers have an even higher propensity to make a purchase on the device with one in four having purchased six times or more in the past six months (Source: Local and the e-tailing group, 2012).
- 62% of shoppers search for deals digitally for at least half of their shopping trips (Source: GMA/Booz & Company Shopper Survey).
For links to the sources and a lot more trends see:
- Map out all customer touch points for mobile, research, prioritise and start testing – Use our customer touchpoint wheel (see illustration on the right)
- Get your mobile website in order if you haven’t already – every brand needs a mobile website no matter how basic
- Develop a multi-channel loyalty program centered on mobile
Free Wifi plays a bigger role in Retail
Free Wifi is spreading from airports and coffee shops into more and more locations and despite upgraded LTE/4G networks the demand from consumers have never been greater.
- Offering free WiFi is one way retailers can accommodate consumer demands, our own research into mobile behaviour in the retail environment found that 38% have already used a stores free WiFi and 78% would use the service if offered.
- By offering this service it not only improves consumer opinions of the store (42%) it also improves customers overall store experience (36%) and gives them confidence they are getting the best deal (25%).
- Wifi is a great enabler for in-door positioning, targeted offers, marketing, loyalty programs and more.
For links to the sources and a lot more trends see:
Try out free Wifi in one of your stores and assuming it’s successful develop a business case for Wifi enabling all your locations over time.
It’s no longer a question about Android vs iOS, but rather what are the leading digital platforms overall and which new platforms are taking over?
No trend presentation would be complete without insights from Mery Meeker. In November 2012 Mery Meeker updated her deck for 2012 with a very insightful slide on the shift in market share of operating systems for personal computing platforms if you include smartphones and tablets. It shows that Wintel (Microsoft Windows and Intel) has already lost their dominance with less than 50% of the market going from about 85% in 2009 to 35% end of 2012. See more in the presentation (slide referred to is #24): http://www.scribd.com/doc/95259089/KPCB-Internet-Trends-2012
Develop a digital strategy based on target audience and how you want to engage with them rather than a specific OS or browser and then identify the best way to reach your target audience.
More Mobile First
This trend is by no means a new trends as Google and Facebook have been talking about mobile first for the past 4 years. The news is that it’s turning into a competitive advantage for the brands embracing it. Google, Facebook, Amazon, eBay, Pandora and others continue to leap frog the competition in marketing and customer engagement thanks to mobile first approach. Other companies such as Coca Cola, Unilever and Nike are cautiously embracing Mobile First as part of new initiatives.
- Consumers in the US may spend twice as much time today with desktop media as they do with mobile, but time spent with mobile is growing at 14 times the rate of the desktop, suggesting that the two could achieve parity inside a couple of years if both maintain a consistent trajectory. (Source: eMarketer November 2012)
- The biggest trend in mobile for 2013 will likely be an alignment of advertising spend with consumer attention. In terms of consumer attention, TV, the web and mobile channels account for nearly 80% of consumption. Print, which consumes only about 7% of consumer attention, accounts for about 25% of ad spend, but that is dropping. (Source: eMarketer November 2012)
- A survey of US adult smartphone owners found that 63% of female respondents and 73% of male respondents don’t go an hour without checking their phone. (Source: Harris Interactive, June 2012)
- Some online services such as Pandora, Twitter, Google, Facebook,etc already have more than 50% of their users accessing through mobile. (Comscore MMX Multi-platform Report, November 2012)
If you haven’t already, then seriously consider a Mobile First approach in your organisation. We’ve talked lots about this during 2012 and many of our customers are adapting this approach in 2013.
Point, click, tap, swipe, wave and speak (User Experience and Simplicity)
This is probably the most contradictory trend of all. On one hand we believe in a trend that goes towards more and more methods of interactions with devices which increase the complexity for designers, developers and the end users. On the other hand we strive towards simplifying services and making them more accessible, productive and easy to use.
- The number of interaction methods is increasing and services are expected to offer the most convenient interaction methods dependent on the use case (Source: Clickhere blog, point-click-tap-swipe-wave-and-speak)
- Lean UX is gaining foothold among agencies and brands (Source: Johnny Holland Blog, http://johnnyholland.org/2012/03/lean-ux-is-dead-long-live-lean-ux/)
- Fjord has a great trend presentation for 2013 that also highlights the important of KISS (Keep it Simple Stupid) (Source: Fjord 2013 trends, http://www.slideshare.net/fjordnet/fjord-trends-2013)
- Omnichannel UX approaches are becoming citical to success when developing new services (Source: UXMAS Blog,
- Think about simplicity and prioritisation of interaction before you add new interaction methods to the feature list.
- Use rapid prototyping and user centered design to improve the attractiveness of the service from the start with reduced time to market and cost.
Metrics & Analytics
Everyone else talks about big data but we would rather talk about how we make the best use of big data. Our customers generally set objectives and targets for every project they deliver with us and then measure the results to calculate ROI. One of the truly exciting things about mobile is that it provides the potential of tracking marketing from first interaction to transaction and continues tracking customer engagement overtime.
- The Mobile Marketing Association releases Primer on Mobile Analytics based on demand form agencies and brands (Source: MMA, Sep 2012)
- With the improvement of performance and costs, IT leaders can afford to perform analytics and simulation for every action taken in the business. The mobile client linked to cloud-based analytic engines and big data repositories potentially enables use of optimization and simulation everywhere and every time. (Source: Gartner Top 10 predictions for 2013)
- Mobility is no longer a “nice to have” — it will become the new BI mantra. (Source: Top 10 BI predictions 2013 and beyond by Forrester)
- Define your measurable target and success criteria
- Implement the process and tools you need to measure the results
- Analyse and optimise
Other trends to watch
These are some other trends worth mentioning even if they individually didn’t end up on the top list for 2013:
- Wearable devices – DMI and our clients currently have several trials with wearable LED devices and we believe that this will be an explosive trend in the coming years as production costs come down.
- Newborn Identity – Multiple profiles, personalisation and privacy management/controls will continue to be an opportunity and a challenge for brands and services in 2013. Arianne van de Ven, Head of Future Trends at Telefonica highlights this as part of her top trends for 2013, see http://grandesclientes.telefonica.es/es/seis-grandes-tendencias-globales.
- Social – This should be on every list for 2013 just as it was for 2012 but it is embedded in all of the themes highlighted and therefore we haven’t put it as a standalone trend.
- Augmented Reality – Research companies and media have made predictions about an AR breakthrough for the past 3 years but we think it’s a slowly emerging enabler that may become successful in different areas from what we would expect. This video has some great example of this: http://prezi.com/pgsp1r71vfv7/copy-of-the-future-of-video/.
Flops & Slow Movers
Predicting the flops and issues is just as important as the emerging trends to embrace. These are some of the things to watch out for in 2013:
- Network congestion – Despite LTE 4G network rollouts and new devices we expect to experience even more mobile network congestion in 2013 and this means that developers need to be careful about how they manage data utilization.
- QR-codes – Although they will continue to be embraced and marketed by brands, the utilisation of QR Codes by consumers will continue to be almost insignificant in Europe with less than 15% of smartphone users scanning a QR code in 2012. (Source: http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2012/9/QR_Code_Usage_Among_European_Smartphone_Owners_Doubles_Over_Past_Year)
- Mobile Wallet and Payments – Consumer take-up of mobile wallet and payment services (replacing bank cards) will continue to be slow in Europe and the US as the advantages are still limited compared to credit cards.
- NFC – As critical mass of NFC enabled devices is still a few years away the technology will continue to be used on a limited scale.
- Blackberry OS 10 – Many heavy mobile e-mail users still love Blackberry thanks to the key board and e-mail centric approach of Blackberry’s UX. Unfortunately we doubt that OS 10 will even be given a chance to prove itself even if the OS and devices turn out to be fantastic.
Continue reading our Enterprise predictions for 2013 in part 2.