December 31st, 2013

2013 Mobile Trend and Prediction Review

At the end of every year we look back at our predictions for the year to validate to what extent our predictions came true or not. In total we made 6 key predictions for 2013 out of which 5 came true and 1 partially and 7 other of which 5 came true and 1 partially. Totally 12 out 13 predictions came true entirely or partially. Below is more detail for each of the predictions.

1. Mobile Retail explodes with mCommerce and Loyalty
40% of all smartphone users (70% of total US and EU population) accessed mobile commerce or retail. Mobile Commerce grew by 68% in the US to 16% of the overall online sales. More importantly it took media by storm as some companies such as Fab.com, eBay and Amazon reported considerably higher figures.

Our recommendation was to focus on the core use cases with a mobile first strategy. The players that did (Amazon, Tesco, Abercrombie and Amazon) showed higher than average revenue from mobile.

Prediction outcome: Neither True or False as retailers have still been slow to deploy mCommerce beyond mobilising their existing websites.

2. Free Wifi plays a bigger role in mobile
This turned out to be an even bigger trend than expected as new technologies such as Knock.io, iBeacon and other indoor engagement and tracking and analytics solutions where deployed in pilots. However, many rollouts got delayed due to budget constraints.

Prediction outcome: True

3. Platform shift from desktop OS to mobile OS
We saw iOS and Android continue dominate the smartphone and tablet OS space with Windows Phone and Blackberry trailing far behind.

Prediction outcome: True although this trend was so generic that it couldn’t go wrong

4. More Mobile First
Many of the worlds biggest brands official adopted mobile first including Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Coca Cola, Unilever and more. On the other hand implementation in terms of budget balancing in production and marketing has been slow.

Prediction outcome: True

5. Point, click, tap, swipe, wave and speak
Apple and Google promoted voice control with limited uptake and Samsung among others tried to convince that gestures was the next new thing with even less success. Instead, the greatest trend of the year was flat design and user experience simplifications.

Prediction outcome: True

6. Metrics & Analytics
Everyone talked about big data and yet even basic analytics was still often the last item on the priority list. Analytics providers including Google, Flurry, Adobe and others vastly improved their mobile analytics tools in 2013 and made life easier for developers and better for product managers.

Prediction outcome: True

7. Other

  • Wearables: Google delivered Google Glass Beta and Samsung launched a smartwatch but the biggest progress was in sport devices. (Prediction outcome: Neither True or False)
  • Newborn identity: 2013 turned out to be a year of data privacy debates but in reality most consumers prioritised convenience (social sign-on) with trusted brands (Prediction outcome: True)
  • Augmented reality: Continued to show promising results in the enterprise but mostly a gimmick in the consumer space (Prediction outcome: True)
  • Network congestion: Less of an issue than we had expected despite an increase of almost 100% in total network traffic (Prediction outcome: False)
  • QR Codes: Continued to have limited impact in the mobile space outside of Japan (Prediction outcome: True)
  • Mobile Wallets and Payments: Google Wallet, Paypal Isis and other payment solutions all had limited uptake (Prediction outcome: True)
  • NFC: Without Apple support nothing happened in 2013 (Prediction outcome: True)
  • Blackberry OS10: Flopped in sales (Prediction outcome: True)

 

Tags: enterprise mobility trends

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